SmartShot: National Voter Registration has hit 200,728,959!

Bryan Whitaker and Chris Brill

Digging into the latest voter registration numbers, we find a number of insights into the American electorate going into Election Day 2016.

Voter Registration

We continue to have an aging electorate. While the total numbers of 18-29-year-old registered voters have increased since 2012, the electorate, and the population in general continues to skew older. In 2012, 20.5% of registered voters were 65 and older, where as in 2016 that percentage is now 22.6%- the largest share increase of any age group. Overall the average age of a registered voter is 49 (average age for Caucasians is 51, 44 for Hispanics).

Women continue to make up a majority of registered voters at 52.5%.

Election Vote 2016

Non-Hispanic white voters are a decreasing share of the overall electorate. In 2016, whites make up less than 70% of all registered voters (69.6%). This is down from the 71.5% of registered voters who were white in 2012. The rise in the share of Hispanic registered voters mostly accounts for this – as Hispanics inch closer to making up almost 10% of all registered voters.

For all voters nationwide, using our Party Model, we find 48.6% lean Democratic, 34.6% lean Republican and 16.8% lean independent. When we examine only those voters who have registered to vote since 2012, we find that 46.7% lean Democratic, 29.7% lean Republican, and 23.6% lean Independent. This shows that since the last Presidential election, there have been a lot of new voters added to the rolls, many having characteristics of neither party, but most new registrants seeming to lean Democratic rather than Republican.


ABOUT BRYAN WHITAKER | Chief Innovation Officer, TargetSmart | @whitakerb2
Bryan is a leader in non-profit information and communications technology management striving to use data, analytics and innovative software to change the world. Bryan is the former COO of NGP VAN and was the Director of Technology at the DNC during President Obama’s re-election campaign. For more on Bryan, you can read his full bio here.

 

ABOUT CHRIS BRILL | Senior Data Analyst, TargetSmart
Chris Brill has a knack for looking at voter information, identifying trends and being able to use all the data he has culled to help political campaigns be more successful. Chris is the former voter file director for the Arizona Democratic Party and was the National Data Director at the DNC. For more on Chris, you can read his full bio here.