TargetSmart/William & Mary Release Final 2016 Election Survey of Ohio Early and Likely Voters

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OFFICIAL RELEASE

Final TargetSmart/William & Mary Poll Shows Narrow Trump Advantage in Ohio

Clinton Goes Into Election Day With Lead Among Early Voters

November 6, 2016 – Hillary Clinton narrowly trails Donald Trump in the contest for Ohio’s 18 electoral votes, according to a new poll released today by TargetSmart and William & Mary. Overall Clinton sits at 40 percent and Trump garners 43 percent of the vote.

The poll included a sample of Ohio voters who have already participated via either absentee voting or early in-person voting, based on reporting from the Ohio Secretary of State that is tracked on TargetSmart’s voter file. Among these early voters, the survey finds Clinton with a 7-point lead over Trump, 48 to 41 percent.

“Our poll suggests that Secretary Clinton has banked substantially more votes ahead of the election than Trump. Moreover, as we saw in our recent research in Florida among early voters, a significant number of Republicans have already crossed over to support Clinton,” said TargetSmart pollster Ben Lazarus.

The survey shows Clinton captured the support of 10 percent of self-described Republicans who voted early, while 81 percent voted for Trump. In contrast, Trump received the support of 4 percent of self-described Democrats who participated early, with 90 percent voting for Clinton.

Clinton is also bolstered by a favorable gender gap among early voters; she holds a 23-point advantage over Trump among early voting women (55 to 32 percent) while Trump’s edge among early voting men is just 14-points (53 to 39 percent). Notably, Clinton also banked substantial support in the early voting window among white women, topping Trump 49 to 37 percent among them, and making the contest among early voting whites incredibly competitive; 43 percent for Clinton to 46 percent for Trump. This poll also shows Clinton carrying 81 percent of Ohio’s non-white early vote, with 10 percent backing Trump.

Trump’s overall lead in the poll is driven by a 6-point advantage, 44 to 38 percent, among voters who have not voted early. Trump is bolstered by a lead among white men who have yet to participate, attracting 57 percent of the vote among them to Clinton’s 27 percent.

“This data shows the ground game is running on all cylinders in Ohio, but given the trend among early voters, the poll suggests the Clinton campaign turnout efforts have been more impactful to date,” Lazarus remarked.

Roughly 4-in-10 voters report having been contacted by someone in support of each candidate.

“However, there is evidence in this survey that Clinton’s efforts have been more accurately targeted,” said Ron Rapoport, John Marshall Professor of Government at William & Mary. Rapoport continued, “Among early voters who report that they have been contacted by someone in support of Secretary Clinton, she leads by a healthy 62 to 25 percent margin. Interestingly, early voters who report having been contacted by Trump also favor him, but by a comparatively smaller 54 to 37 percent margin.”

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About TargetSmart:

TargetSmart is the leading provider of political data that enables campaigns and organizations to successfully communicate with large audiences, and personalize outreach. Our superior politically-focused, consultative approach combines consumer data, databases, data integration and consulting solutions for personalized multichannel marketing strategies. TargetSmart leverages over 25 years of experience in data management to deliver high-performance, reliable data products and solutions.

About William & Mary:

William & Mary is a public university located in Williamsburg, Virginia. Founded by Royal Charter in 1693, it is the second oldest institution of higher education in the United States. U.S. News and World Report ranks William & Mary sixth among all public universities in the country.


>> For full methodology, toplines and crosstabs click here