Targetsmart | William & Mary Release Poll of Ohio Likely Voters

Clinton 40, Trump 37 Latest Survey Shows

TargetSmart            William & Mary

Editor’s Note:

Explore our interactive dashboard with survey results and voter file data here

Read our poll release and view topline data, crosstabs, and survey methodology here

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September 26, 2016 – Hillary Clinton holds a narrow, 3-point lead over Donald Trump in Ohio, 40 to 37 percent, with 8 percent of voters supporting Gary Johnson, according to a new poll of likely voters released today by TargetSmart and William & Mary.

Recently forming a partnership to produce original research in key battleground states, TargetSmart and William & Mary developed a unique approach to determining a “likely voter” model for this poll. The research team first weighted the survey data to mirror all registered voters on the TargetSmart voter file, and then applied a second round of weights based solely on respondents’ likelihood to vote, as measured by TargetSmart’s General Election Turnout score, one of many predictive models housed on the TargetSmart voter file.

“Having the ability to use TargetSmart’s turnout score to weight the data takes much of the guesswork out of determining a likely voter model,” said Ron Rapoport, John Marshall Professor of Government at William & Mary.

Several key trends underlie the battle for Ohio’s 18 electoral votes. The poll shows a more consolidated base of partisan support for Hillary Clinton, as 85 percent of self-described Democrats back her, while just 70 percent of Republicans side with Donald Trump. Fourteen percent of Buckeye State Republicans back a non-major party candidate (10 percent support Johnson), compared to just 4 percent of Democrats who do the same. There is also a large gender gap as Clinton leads by 16-points among Ohio women (47 to 31 percent), and trails Trump by 12-points among men (32 to 44 percent). When combining education and gender, the differences are even more pronounced as Clinton leads Trump by 21-points among college educated women, but trails Trump by 15-points among men without a college degree.

The race is even (38 percent apiece) among higher propensity voters based on TargetSmart’s General Election Turnout model. Clinton’s overall advantage is based on a strong performance with lower propensity voters, among whom she leads by 9-points (44 to 35 percent), suggesting that a low turnout election could work to Trump’s advantage.

The poll reached 821 registered Ohio voters through a blend of online and telephone interviews. All survey records were matched to TargetSmart’s enhanced voter file.

“TargetSmart partners with a number of leading online panel providers, matching their recruited panelists to our voter file using a proprietary anonymization process. As a result, we can analyze online survey data in much the same way pollsters have, for years, analyzed telephone polls dialed from the voter file,” said TargetSmart pollster Ben Lazarus.

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About TargetSmart:

TargetSmart is the leading provider of political data that enables campaigns and organizations to successfully communicate with large audiences, and personalize outreach. Our superior politically-focused, consultative approach combines consumer data, databases, data integration and consulting solutions for personalized multichannel marketing strategies. TargetSmart leverages over 25 years of experience in data management to deliver high-performance, reliable data products and solutions.

About William & Mary:

William & Mary is a public university located in Williamsburg, Virginia. Founded by Royal Charter in 1693, it is the second oldest institution of higher education in the United States. U.S. News and World Report ranks William & Mary sixth among all public universities in the country.