Over 500,000 Votes Have Already Been Cast in 2016 Presidential Election
More than 500,000 votes have been cast nationwide in the 2016 presidential election as of Tuesday, according to new analysis by the NBC News Data Analytics Lab.
In the seven battleground states below–where campaigns are especially focused on mobilizing voters– 330,980 early votes have now been cast.
In 2012, about 12 million voters cast ballots before Election Day in these same states. This very first batch of 2016 early votes is therefore only a small sliver of the early vote that is expected to roll in over the next several weeks.
The early votes compiled so far reflect either absentee ballots returned, in-person no excuse absentee voting or in-person early voting. Early in-person voting has not yet started in most states, so these early vote numbers will increase significantly in some states as these voting windows approach.
The number of voters casting ballots before Election Day via absentee or early in-person voting has been steadily increasing in the past decade. In the 2012 presidential election, 40 million Americans (more than a third of the electorate) voted early via absentee or early in-person voting. In some crucial battleground states, early voting was much higher than the national average.
This gradual shift has undoubtedly meant that campaigns must also focus their mobilization and outreach efforts on the calendar in addition to the electoral map.
As ballot requests, registration applications and the first early votes start trickling in, campaigns will undoubtedly examine every piece of data related to Election Day 2016 with a microscope. But because election administrators in every state only maintain records of whether someone voted (not who the vote was cast for), campaigns use other pieces of registration information to give them clues as to how the race is going.
One such method is through a voter’s party affiliation. Historically, party affiliation is a strong predictor of vote choice, so this information is a helpful way to estimate which candidate a voter may have supported.
As of October 11, more Democratic-affiliated voters have cast early ballots in Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Virginia and Wisconsin. In Florida and Georgia, however, more Republican-affiliated voters have cast ballots so far.
Though early information is still incredibly important for campaigns and voters alike, it is important to keep in mind that early vote “leads” do not necessarily equal victories. This is illustrated empirically with 2012 voter file data.
In 2012, more Democratic-affiliated voters cast early ballots than Republicans in Florida, Virginia, Iowa, North Carolina and Nevada. President Obama won all but one very crucial battleground state — North Carolina—which also showed the highest Democratic early voting “lead” among all battlegrounds.
Many strategists attributed Obama’s narrow victory over Mitt Romney in 2012 to the early vote lead the president secured before Election Day. According to NBC News Exit Polls, Obama held a 7-point lead over Romney among early voters. Among Election Day voters, the candidates were tied. Mobilizing early voters is thus an increasingly important aspect of campaigning. As more 2016 early votes roll in, it will be interesting to assess whether either party’s candidate has been successful in this strategy.
To be sure, parsing out this data and making comparisons to 2012 help contextualize the information, but it is important to keep in mind that turnout in every election varies in volume, method and demographic composition. Changes in voter identification laws, candidate-specific enthusiasm (or lack thereof) and even the weather can affect who turns out to vote.
Regardless of these significant unknowns, early voting is an increasingly important aspect of voter participation and campaign strategy, so early glimpses into the 2016 vote as it currently stands are informative.
As this early vote continues to roll in, the NBC News Data Analytics Lab will update early vote counts and partisan breakdowns in nearly every battleground state as frequently as possible leading up to Election Day.
November 3, 2016
SmartShot: America’s Early Vote has surpassed 40 million nationwide*
November 2, 2016
CEO Tom Bonier on MSNBC’s “Last Word with Lawrence O’Donnell”