SmartShot: Getting Closer to 200 Million Registered Voters!

Bryan Whitaker and Chris Brill

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Fantastic news. Voter registration continues to inch ever closer to 200 million registrants across the United States.


early-votingBased on TargetSmart’s latest VoterBase update with new registrants on voter files in numerous states as of October 10, 2016, the national voter registration number is 199,285,702. That’s an increase of almost 1.5 million registrants since last week’s SmartShot! With continuing voter registration efforts in the states, we’re well on our way to hitting a new landmark number.

What’s just as exciting is our update on 2016 voter registration rates compared to this same time frame in the last Presidential election in 2012. We’re continuing to see voter registration rates outperform, signaling serious voter registration activity especially in Battleground states and hotly contested elections.

















Looking into 2016 new and updated registrants in these hotly contested states, we’ve used our TargetSmart Partisanship scores to analyze the likely party preference of these new registrants. As you’ll see, overall in these states 42.6% of new and updated registrants lean Democratic vs 29% lean GOP and 28% lean Independent.
















And looking historically back over the year, we find another interesting trend. Since the beginning of 2016, according to our partisanship model, Democratic registration has been outpacing GOP registration: 42.6% Democratic leaning, versus 29.0% GOP leaning. In addition, this trend has accelerated since June 1, as 46.4% of voters registered since then are Democratic leaning, versus just 24.5% GOP leaning. It’s likely that GOP registration rates peaked during their primary election, but this analysis shows the Democrats hit the ground in the Summer and started pulling away even before the Democratic National Convention.



ABOUT BRYAN WHITAKER | Chief Innovation Officer, TargetSmart | @whitakerb2
Bryan is a leader in non-profit information and communications technology management striving to use data, analytics and innovative software to change the world. Bryan is the former COO of NGP VAN and was the Director of Technology at the DNC during President Obama’s re-election campaign. For more on Bryan, you can read his full bio here.


ABOUT CHRIS BRILL | Senior Data Analyst, TargetSmart
Chris Brill has a knack for looking at voter information, identifying trends and being able to use all the data he has culled to help political campaigns be more successful. Chris is the former voter file director for the Arizona Democratic Party and was the National Data Director at the DNC. For more on Chris, you can read his full bio here.