SmartShot: America’s Early Vote has surpassed 40 million nationwide*

(*42,135,837 as Nov. 5, 2016)

SmartShot by Drew Brighton and Bryan Whitaker

TargetSmart continues to collect individual-level early vote data from Secretaries of State in early-voting states across the country. Matching these lists to our numerous political, socio-economic and demographic variables as well as our proprietary models allows us to analyze American early voters in very insightful ways.

Diving into these 42,135,837 early voters, we find some interesting things.

Using our new Clinton Support model (propensity to support Hillary Clinton for President or not), we find some powerful insights into the likely Presidential choice of these early voters:clinton-support-11-6

Broken out by gender we find women out-pacing men in early voting, and women’s voteshare continues to slowly increase:gender-11-6

Zooming in on age, we see Americans over 55 early voting more compared to other age groups, however, starting yesterday – and seen again in this morning’s update – there is a rise in the early voteshare of 18 – 34 year olds as well as 35 – 54 year olds.age-11-6

Using TargetSmart’s Turnout Model, we find that high propensity voters are early-voting, but a surprising number of low propensity voters have early voted as well – and low propensity voter’s share of early vote is slowly increasing:turnout-11-6

9.9% of Early Voters are Newly Registered and this continues an upward trend. Taking a closer look at these Newly* Registered (*registered since November 4th, 2014) early voters and their Likely Party affiliation, we see an upward trend in Likely Democrats in terms of early voteshare:


Looking at Early Voters by their Race, we find the following breakouts, and a decrease of Caucasian (Non-Hispanic) voteshare in the early voter universe:race-11-6

ABOUT DREW BRIGHTON | Founder, Owner and Partner, TargetSmart
For the past two decades Drew has been an industry leader helping political organizations and corporations use data to achieve many diverse goals. His career started with Acxiom where he utilized his data mining skills to assist major companies, including Office Depot, FedEx and Citi, to use data as part of their consumer and business marketing strategies. For more on Drew, you can read his full bio here.


ABOUT BRYAN WHITAKER | Chief Innovation Officer, TargetSmart | @whitakerb2
Bryan is a leader in non-profit information and communications technology management striving to use data, analytics and innovative software to change the world. Bryan is the former COO of NGP VAN and was the Director of Technology at the DNC during President Obama’s re-election campaign. For more on Bryan, you can read his full bio here.