A Weekly Inventory Intelligence Report

Political advertising is accelerating as the general election enters its final five weeks. This week, Texas and North Carolina show how outside groups are moving large sums quickly and driving a growing share of the advertising in competitive Senate markets.

In Texas, AdImpact data shows more than $153 million spent in the U.S. Senate race as of mid-September, with projections reaching $440 million by Election Day. In North Carolina, outside groups accounted for nearly three-quarters of the approximately $37.78 million spent on Senate advertising from August 10 through September 13.

For downballot races and the buyers supporting them, that level of spending creates a unique opportunity to break through. TargetSmart’s new Roll-off and Ticket Splitter scores, now available in ListBuilder, identify the voters most likely to skip races further downballot or split their vote across party lines. That means every dollar can reach the people who may decide those races. ListBuilder is available to all existing clients at my.targetsmart.com.

This Week’s Inventory Snapshot

 

Texas: Outside spending is pushing the race toward a new state record

The Senate race between Ken Paxton and James Talarico is on course to become the most expensive in Texas history with totals projected to reach $440 million by Election Day. That is more than double the previous state record of just over $210 million set in 2024.

Outside groups are carrying most of the load for Paxton. Conservative super PACs spent approximately $98.5 million as of mid-September, led by Texas PAC at $62.4 million, while Paxton’s own campaign spent about $465,000. Talarico’s campaign had spent just under $50 million. Senate Leadership Fund, working through Texas PAC, has since raised its Texas commitment to $100 million.

North Carolina: Outside groups are driving Senate ad spending

North Carolina remains one of the most closely watched Senate races in the country. From August 10 through September 13, approximately $37.78 million was spent on advertising in the U.S. Senate race between Roy Cooper and Michael Whatley, according to AdImpact data analyzed by the Wesleyan Media Project.

Outside groups accounted for approximately $27.88 million, or 73.8%, of that spending. Democratic candidate spending totaled roughly $5.83 million, while Republican candidate spending was approximately $3.20 million during the same period. Pro-Republican advertising made up 54.3% of total Senate ad spending in the state.

What This Means for Premium CTV

When top-of-ticket races are absorbing as much premium CTV inventory, downballot campaigns need to make every impression count. By building audiences in ListBuilder with the new Roll-off and Ticket Splitter scores and activating them through TargetSmart’s Media Buying Platform, campaigns can quickly engage the voters who are most likely to skip or split their ballot. This creates an opportunity to engage crucial voters across CTV, streaming, social, and display. In addition, our built-in early vote exclusions and matchback reporting help keep spend focused on voters who have not yet cast a ballot and show how exposure connects to turnout.

Planning an October campaign? Talk to TargetSmart about the premium inventory available now.

Stay tuned for more.