Beyond the Ballot: What’s Driving Black, Hispanic, and Young Voters

By Sara Stephenson and Nicole Brok

Last week, we looked at what TargetSmart’s national survey found about the congressional ballot: Black, Hispanic, and young voters are moving away from Trump and Republicans, but they remain lukewarm on Democrats in Congress. That leaves an obvious question:

If these voters are not fully sold on either party, what is shaping how they see the political landscape heading into November?

Part 2 of this analysis turns to that question, looking at the economic pressure, institutional distrust, technology concerns, and motivation levels driving these constituencies as the midterms approach.

Economic Pressure Comes First

No issue tested in the survey comes close to rising prices and inflation. It tops the list by a wide margin, with 74% very concerned and 94% very or somewhat concerned, easily outpacing every other issue TargetSmart asked about, from big money in politics to AI to voting rights. The financial strain behind that number is real and immediate. Nearly two-thirds of respondents, 62%, rate their personal financial situation as only fair or poor, and most say they are worse off than they were a year ago.

That pressure is already reshaping everyday decisions. Sixty-nine percent say they have cut back on groceries because of high prices, and 62% have cut back on driving. The pain is not distributed evenly. Black and Hispanic respondents are far more likely than White respondents under 35 to say they are financially worse off than a year ago, 64% and 61% compared with just 48%. And it is not only day-to-day costs driving anxiety. Concern about the concentration of wealth in the United States runs nearly as high as concern over prices themselves, with 56% very concerned and 82% very or somewhat concerned, suggesting these voters see the economy’s problems as structural, not just a temporary squeeze.

Economic anxiety is not the only thing weighing on these voters; it comes paired with a deep skepticism of political institutions themselves. Sixty-six percent are very concerned about the influence of big money in politics, the second-highest concern tested behind only inflation, and 68% agree that people like them do not have any say about what government does. For a large share of this coalition, the problem is not just prices; it is a sense that the system itself is unresponsive.

Distrust Extends Beyond One Party

That distrust is not confined to one side of the aisle. Seventy-eight percent agree that Republicans in Congress care more about elites than people like them, but 58% say the same about Democrats in Congress, a sizable majority in its own right. Younger respondents are especially unconvinced that either party is on their side. Half of young voters surveyed say both parties in Congress prioritize elites over people like them, compared with just 23% of older Black and Hispanic voters, who are far more likely to place the blame on Republicans alone.

That 20-point gap between how voters view Republicans and Democrats matters. Republicans clearly draw the sharper criticism, but Democrats are hardly getting a pass, and the generational split suggests the problem is likely to deepen rather than fade. Winning over young, diverse voters will take more than positioning against Trump and congressional Republicans, it will require convincing a skeptical electorate that Democrats are not just the lesser of two elite-driven parties, but an actual alternative to one.

Technology Is Part Of The Anxiety

Technology, particularly the rapid adoption of AI, is emerging as its own source of unease. Fifty-two percent are very concerned about the increased use of artificial intelligence in everyday life, 55% about the expansion of data centers built to power it, and 55% about government surveillance tools such as license plate readers and Flock cameras. Trust has not kept pace with the technology itself: 62% say they have little or no confidence that businesses will use AI responsibly.

Concerns over technology are not spread evenly across the coalition, however. Black and Hispanic voters under 35 are consistently the most anxious group on every technology question tested, from AI in daily life to surveillance, running as much as 10 to 15 points above older Black and Hispanic voters or White voters under 35.

It is a reminder that even within a single survey population, these are not interchangeable voters with identical priorities. The youngest, most diverse segment of this coalition is also the most wary of where technology is headed, and any message that ignores that distinction risks missing a real and growing source of anxiety.

Motivation Is High, But Not Uniform

Despite everything weighing on them, financially, politically, and technologically, these voters are not tuning out. Democrats in these constituencies report the highest motivation by a wide margin, with 84% saying they are extremely or very motivated to vote in November, compared with 76% of Republicans and just 66% of independents.

That motivation, though, comes with its own asterisk. Only 24% of respondents say they are very confident the November 2026 election will be conducted fairly and accurately, and 54% are very concerned that eligible voters could face greater barriers to casting a ballot. Voters are showing up ready to participate, even as many of them doubt whether the system will let that participation count the way it should.

Taken together, these findings make one thing clear: motivation and dissatisfaction are not opposites; they can and do coexist. Black, Hispanic, and young voters carry real anxiety about their finances, deep skepticism of political institutions, growing unease about emerging technology, and genuine doubts about the electoral process itself, and yet many of them remain highly engaged and ready to vote. For anyone trying to reach these constituencies, that combination is the real takeaway. The opportunity is not just about winning an argument on the ballot; it is about proving to an engaged but wary electorate that someone is actually listening.

About The Poll

TargetSmart designed and administered a nationwide, multi-modal survey of 1,873 registered voters who are Black, Hispanic, or under age 35. The survey was conducted August 24 through September 2, 2026. Respondents were reached through live caller interviews, text-to-web surveys, and matched online panels. The total sample has a credibility interval of +/- 2.3 percentage points.

Beyond the Ballot: What’s Driving Black, Hispanic, and Young Voters

By Sara Stephenson and Nicole Brok

Last week, we looked at what TargetSmart’s national survey found about the congressional ballot: Black, Hispanic, and young voters are moving away from Trump and Republicans, but they remain lukewarm on Democrats in Congress. That leaves an obvious question:

If these voters are not fully sold on either party, what is shaping how they see the political landscape heading into November?

Part 2 of this analysis turns to that question, looking at the economic pressure, institutional distrust, technology concerns, and motivation levels driving these constituencies as the midterms approach.

Economic Pressure Comes First

No issue tested in the survey comes close to rising prices and inflation. It tops the list by a wide margin, with 74% very concerned and 94% very or somewhat concerned, easily outpacing every other issue TargetSmart asked about, from big money in politics to AI to voting rights. The financial strain behind that number is real and immediate. Nearly two-thirds of respondents, 62%, rate their personal financial situation as only fair or poor, and most say they are worse off than they were a year ago.

That pressure is already reshaping everyday decisions. Sixty-nine percent say they have cut back on groceries because of high prices, and 62% have cut back on driving. The pain is not distributed evenly. Black and Hispanic respondents are far more likely than White respondents under 35 to say they are financially worse off than a year ago, 64% and 61% compared with just 48%. And it is not only day-to-day costs driving anxiety. Concern about the concentration of wealth in the United States runs nearly as high as concern over prices themselves, with 56% very concerned and 82% very or somewhat concerned, suggesting these voters see the economy’s problems as structural, not just a temporary squeeze.

Economic anxiety is not the only thing weighing on these voters; it comes paired with a deep skepticism of political institutions themselves. Sixty-six percent are very concerned about the influence of big money in politics, the second-highest concern tested behind only inflation, and 68% agree that people like them do not have any say about what government does. For a large share of this coalition, the problem is not just prices; it is a sense that the system itself is unresponsive.

Distrust Extends Beyond One Party

That distrust is not confined to one side of the aisle. Seventy-eight percent agree that Republicans in Congress care more about elites than people like them, but 58% say the same about Democrats in Congress, a sizable majority in its own right. Younger respondents are especially unconvinced that either party is on their side. Half of young voters surveyed say both parties in Congress prioritize elites over people like them, compared with just 23% of older Black and Hispanic voters, who are far more likely to place the blame on Republicans alone.

That 20-point gap between how voters view Republicans and Democrats matters. Republicans clearly draw the sharper criticism, but Democrats are hardly getting a pass, and the generational split suggests the problem is likely to deepen rather than fade. Winning over young, diverse voters will take more than positioning against Trump and congressional Republicans, it will require convincing a skeptical electorate that Democrats are not just the lesser of two elite-driven parties, but an actual alternative to one.

Technology Is Part Of The Anxiety

Technology, particularly the rapid adoption of AI, is emerging as its own source of unease. Fifty-two percent are very concerned about the increased use of artificial intelligence in everyday life, 55% about the expansion of data centers built to power it, and 55% about government surveillance tools such as license plate readers and Flock cameras. Trust has not kept pace with the technology itself: 62% say they have little or no confidence that businesses will use AI responsibly.

Concerns over technology are not spread evenly across the coalition, however. Black and Hispanic voters under 35 are consistently the most anxious group on every technology question tested, from AI in daily life to surveillance, running as much as 10 to 15 points above older Black and Hispanic voters or White voters under 35.

It is a reminder that even within a single survey population, these are not interchangeable voters with identical priorities. The youngest, most diverse segment of this coalition is also the most wary of where technology is headed, and any message that ignores that distinction risks missing a real and growing source of anxiety.

Motivation Is High, But Not Uniform

Despite everything weighing on them, financially, politically, and technologically, these voters are not tuning out. Democrats in these constituencies report the highest motivation by a wide margin, with 84% saying they are extremely or very motivated to vote in November, compared with 76% of Republicans and just 66% of independents.

That motivation, though, comes with its own asterisk. Only 24% of respondents say they are very confident the November 2026 election will be conducted fairly and accurately, and 54% are very concerned that eligible voters could face greater barriers to casting a ballot. Voters are showing up ready to participate, even as many of them doubt whether the system will let that participation count the way it should.

Taken together, these findings make one thing clear: motivation and dissatisfaction are not opposites; they can and do coexist. Black, Hispanic, and young voters carry real anxiety about their finances, deep skepticism of political institutions, growing unease about emerging technology, and genuine doubts about the electoral process itself, and yet many of them remain highly engaged and ready to vote. For anyone trying to reach these constituencies, that combination is the real takeaway. The opportunity is not just about winning an argument on the ballot; it is about proving to an engaged but wary electorate that someone is actually listening.

About The Poll

TargetSmart designed and administered a nationwide, multi-modal survey of 1,873 registered voters who are Black, Hispanic, or under age 35. The survey was conducted August 24 through September 2, 2026. Respondents were reached through live caller interviews, text-to-web surveys, and matched online panels. The total sample has a credibility interval of +/- 2.3 percentage points.

Let’s Get Started

ListBuilder is trusted by progressive campaigns, organizations, and vendors to build high-performance audiences for GOTV, persuasion programs, and fundraising outreach. Find out how it can help your team win: