South Jersey Assembly Wins
How Data, Messaging, and Precision Digital Targeting Delivered Six Wins in Competitive Districts
Overview
In the 2025 New Jersey State Assembly elections, TargetSmart helped deliver six Democratic victories across three highly competitive South Jersey districts (LD-3, LD-4, LD-8)—including a critical seat flip in LD-8 that expanded the Democratic majority.
Key Outcomes
In LD-3, Democrats won in a district carried three times by Trump and twice by Republican gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli—demonstrating the effectiveness of localized strategy over national trends.
The Challenge
South Jersey presented a challenging environment:
- Strong Republican performance at the top of the ticket in past cycles
- Socially conservative voters
- High voter dissatisfaction under a Democratic governor (61% said the state was on the wrong track)
- Well-funded Republican opposition (e.g., $1M+ spent against Andrea Katz in LD-8)
Winning required precision targeting, disciplined messaging, and efficient use of limited legislative campaign resources.
Strategy: An Integrated, Data-Driven Campaign
TargetSmart deployed a fully integrated approach:
 |
This closed-loop system enabled continuous optimization throughout the campaign across field, phone, and digital mediums. |
Polling: Defining the Path to Victory
Polling established a clear 4-part path to victory:
1. Lead with Cost of Living
Top voter concerns included cost of living and property taxes. The most persuasive messages were:
- Cap prescription drug costs (61% more likely to support)
- Lower electricity costs (57%)
- Property tax relief (56%)
2. Define “Us vs. Them”
We defined the contrast between “us” – local families, farmers, seniors, small businesses – and “them” (utilities, insurers, special interests). In LD-8, for example, up to 63% voters were more likely to support candidates using this framing.
3. Inoculate the Candidates on Energy
Energy was both a risk and opportunity:
- 61% less likely to support candidates tied to costly energy restrictions
- 57% more likely to support candidates taking on utility companies
4. Keep it Local
Polling showed lower intensity on national issues and Democratic vulnerability on culture war topics. We therefore found a winning approach in focusing on hyper-local issues (costs, safety, jobs) and avoiding federal and ideological debates.
Custom Support Modeling
We built a district-specific legislative support model using 2,261 interviews across LD-3, LD-4, and LD-8.
This Model:
|
Why it Mattered
|
Paid Media: Efficiency at Scale
Using TargetSmart’s Media Buying Platform (MBP), campaigns maximized impact while minimizing waste.
Traditional platforms can lose up to 60% of spend on inefficiencies. MBP ensures that hard-earned campaign dollars go to the right voters, using TargetSmart’s data and AI-based rate optimization.
Working with the media firm Conexión, which created the ads, TargetSmart’s MBP deployed those ads that grounded candidate bios in messaging identified by our polling. With just $405k across the six candidates, we focused on 38,000 voters in each district, delivering as many as 70 ad impressions per voter in the final months of the election.
Results
By Election Night, all six candidates won while outperforming the top of the ticket – including by flipping one Republican seat, expanding the Democratic majority in the State Assembly.
Thanks to our very targeted persuasion effort, undecided voters broke decisively for our candidates in the final weeks of the campaign:
In addition to winning over undecided voters, our custom models also provided a very accurate prediction of Election Day turnout, which was key for our strategy – even though off-year election turnout is notoriously hard to predict.
Bottom Line
TargetSmart’s integrated approach—combining polling, custom modeling, and precision digital and offline targeting—enabled campaigns to:
South Jersey Assembly Wins
How Data, Messaging, and Precision Digital Targeting Delivered Six Wins in Competitive Districts
Overview
In the 2025 New Jersey State Assembly elections, TargetSmart helped deliver six Democratic victories across three highly competitive South Jersey districts (LD-3, LD-4, LD-8)—including a critical seat flip in LD-8 that expanded the Democratic majority.
Key Outcomes
In LD-3, Democrats won in a district carried three times by Trump and twice by Republican gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli—demonstrating the effectiveness of localized strategy over national trends.
The Challenge
South Jersey presented a challenging environment:
- Strong Republican performance at the top of the ticket in past cycles
- Socially conservative voters
- High voter dissatisfaction under a Democratic governor (61% said the state was on the wrong track)
- Well-funded Republican opposition (e.g., $1M+ spent against Andrea Katz in LD-8)
Winning required precision targeting, disciplined messaging, and efficient use of limited legislative campaign resources.
Strategy: An Integrated, Data-Driven Campaign
TargetSmart deployed a fully integrated approach:
|
This closed-loop system enabled continuous optimization throughout the campaign across field, phone, and digital mediums. |
Polling: Defining the Path to Victory
Polling established a clear 4-part path to victory:
1. Lead with Cost of Living
Top voter concerns included cost of living and property taxes. The most persuasive messages were:
- Cap prescription drug costs (61% more likely to support)
- Lower electricity costs (57%)
- Property tax relief (56%)
2. Define “Us vs. Them”
We defined the contrast between “us” – local families, farmers, seniors, small businesses – and “them” (utilities, insurers, special interests). In LD-8, for example, up to 63% voters were more likely to support candidates using this framing.
3. Inoculate the Candidates on Energy
Energy was both a risk and opportunity:
- 61% less likely to support candidates tied to costly energy restrictions
- 57% more likely to support candidates taking on utility companies
4. Keep it Local
Polling showed lower intensity on national issues and Democratic vulnerability on culture war topics. We therefore found a winning approach in focusing on hyper-local issues (costs, safety, jobs) and avoiding federal and ideological debates.
Custom Support Modeling
We built a district-specific legislative support model using 2,261 interviews across LD-3, LD-4, and LD-8.
This Model:
|
Why it Mattered
|
Paid Media: Efficiency at Scale
Using TargetSmart’s Media Buying Platform (MBP), campaigns maximized impact while minimizing waste.
Traditional platforms can lose up to 60% of spend on inefficiencies. MBP ensures that hard-earned campaign dollars go to the right voters, using TargetSmart’s data and AI-based rate optimization.
Working with the media firm Conexión, which created the ads, TargetSmart’s MBP deployed those ads that grounded candidate bios in messaging identified by our polling. With just $405k across the six candidates, we focused on 38,000 voters in each district, delivering as many as 70 ad impressions per voter in the final months of the election.
Results
By Election Night, all six candidates won while outperforming the top of the ticket – including by flipping one Republican seat, expanding the Democratic majority in the State Assembly.
Thanks to our very targeted persuasion effort, undecided voters broke decisively for our candidates in the final weeks of the campaign:
In addition to winning over undecided voters, our custom models also provided a very accurate prediction of Election Day turnout, which was key for our strategy – even though off-year election turnout is notoriously hard to predict.
Bottom Line
TargetSmart’s integrated approach—combining polling, custom modeling, and precision digital and offline targeting—enabled campaigns to:
South Jersey Assembly Wins
How Data, Messaging, and Precision Digital Targeting Delivered Six Wins in Competitive Districts
Overview
In the 2025 New Jersey State Assembly elections, TargetSmart helped deliver six Democratic victories across three highly competitive South Jersey districts (LD-3, LD-4, LD-8)—including a critical seat flip in LD-8 that expanded the Democratic majority.
Key Outcomes
In LD-3, Democrats won in a district carried three times by Trump and twice by Republican gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli—demonstrating the effectiveness of localized strategy over national trends.
The Challenge
South Jersey presented a challenging environment:
- Strong Republican performance at the top of the ticket in past cycles
- Socially conservative voters
- High voter dissatisfaction under a Democratic governor (61% said the state was on the wrong track)
- Well-funded Republican opposition (e.g., $1M+ spent against Andrea Katz in LD-8)
Winning required precision targeting, disciplined messaging, and efficient use of limited legislative campaign resources.
Strategy: An Integrated, Data-Driven Campaign
TargetSmart deployed a fully integrated approach:
|
This closed-loop system enabled continuous optimization throughout the campaign across field, phone, and digital mediums. |
Polling: Defining the Path to Victory
Polling established a clear 4-part path to victory:
1. Lead with Cost of Living
Top voter concerns included cost of living and property taxes. The most persuasive messages were:
- Cap prescription drug costs (61% more likely to support)
- Lower electricity costs (57%)
- Property tax relief (56%)
2. Define “Us vs. Them”
We defined the contrast between “us” – local families, farmers, seniors, small businesses – and “them” (utilities, insurers, special interests). In LD-8, for example, up to 63% voters were more likely to support candidates using this framing.
3. Inoculate the Candidates on Energy
Energy was both a risk and opportunity:
- 61% less likely to support candidates tied to costly energy restrictions
- 57% more likely to support candidates taking on utility companies
4. Keep it Local
Polling showed lower intensity on national issues and Democratic vulnerability on culture war topics. We therefore found a winning approach in focusing on hyper-local issues (costs, safety, jobs) and avoiding federal and ideological debates.
Custom Support Modeling
We built a district-specific legislative support model using 2,261 interviews across LD-3, LD-4, and LD-8.
This Model:
|
Why it Mattered
|
Paid Media: Efficiency at Scale
Using TargetSmart’s Media Buying Platform (MBP), campaigns maximized impact while minimizing waste.
Traditional platforms can lose up to 60% of spend on inefficiencies. MBP ensures that hard-earned campaign dollars go to the right voters, using TargetSmart’s data and AI-based rate optimization.
Working with the media firm Conexión, which created the ads, TargetSmart’s MBP deployed those ads that grounded candidate bios in messaging identified by our polling. With just $405k across the six candidates, we focused on 38,000 voters in each district, delivering as many as 70 ad impressions per voter in the final months of the election.
Results
By Election Night, all six candidates won while outperforming the top of the ticket – including by flipping one Republican seat, expanding the Democratic majority in the State Assembly.
Thanks to our very targeted persuasion effort, undecided voters broke decisively for our candidates in the final weeks of the campaign:
In addition to winning over undecided voters, our custom models also provided a very accurate prediction of Election Day turnout, which was key for our strategy – even though off-year election turnout is notoriously hard to predict.
Bottom Line
TargetSmart’s integrated approach—combining polling, custom modeling, and precision digital and offline targeting—enabled campaigns to:
South Jersey Assembly Wins
How Data, Messaging, and Precision Digital Targeting Delivered Six Wins in Competitive Districts
Overview
In the 2025 New Jersey State Assembly elections, TargetSmart helped deliver six Democratic victories across three highly competitive South Jersey districts (LD-3, LD-4, LD-8)—including a critical seat flip in LD-8 that expanded the Democratic majority.
Key Outcomes
In LD-3, Democrats won in a district carried three times by Trump and twice by Republican gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli—demonstrating the effectiveness of localized strategy over national trends.
The Challenge
South Jersey presented a challenging environment:
- Strong Republican performance at the top of the ticket in past cycles
- Socially conservative voters
- High voter dissatisfaction under a Democratic governor (61% said the state was on the wrong track)
- Well-funded Republican opposition (e.g., $1M+ spent against Andrea Katz in LD-8)
Winning required precision targeting, disciplined messaging, and efficient use of limited legislative campaign resources.
Strategy: An Integrated, Data-Driven Campaign
TargetSmart deployed a fully integrated approach:
|
This closed-loop system enabled continuous optimization throughout the campaign across field, phone, and digital mediums. |
Polling: Defining the Path to Victory
Polling established a clear 4-part path to victory:
1. Lead with Cost of Living
Top voter concerns included cost of living and property taxes. The most persuasive messages were:
- Cap prescription drug costs (61% more likely to support)
- Lower electricity costs (57%)
- Property tax relief (56%)
2. Define “Us vs. Them”
We defined the contrast between “us” – local families, farmers, seniors, small businesses – and “them” (utilities, insurers, special interests). In LD-8, for example, up to 63% voters were more likely to support candidates using this framing.
3. Inoculate the Candidates on Energy
Energy was both a risk and opportunity:
- 61% less likely to support candidates tied to costly energy restrictions
- 57% more likely to support candidates taking on utility companies
4. Keep it Local
Polling showed lower intensity on national issues and Democratic vulnerability on culture war topics. We therefore found a winning approach in focusing on hyper-local issues (costs, safety, jobs) and avoiding federal and ideological debates.
Custom Support Modeling
We built a district-specific legislative support model using 2,261 interviews across LD-3, LD-4, and LD-8.
This Model:
|
Why it Mattered
|
Paid Media: Efficiency at Scale
Using TargetSmart’s Media Buying Platform (MBP), campaigns maximized impact while minimizing waste.
Traditional platforms can lose up to 60% of spend on inefficiencies. MBP ensures that hard-earned campaign dollars go to the right voters, using TargetSmart’s data and AI-based rate optimization.
Working with the media firm Conexión, which created the ads, TargetSmart’s MBP deployed those ads that grounded candidate bios in messaging identified by our polling. With just $405k across the six candidates, we focused on 38,000 voters in each district, delivering as many as 70 ad impressions per voter in the final months of the election.
Results
By Election Night, all six candidates won while outperforming the top of the ticket – including by flipping one Republican seat, expanding the Democratic majority in the State Assembly.
Thanks to our very targeted persuasion effort, undecided voters broke decisively for our candidates in the final weeks of the campaign:
In addition to winning over undecided voters, our custom models also provided a very accurate prediction of Election Day turnout, which was key for our strategy – even though off-year election turnout is notoriously hard to predict.
Bottom Line
TargetSmart’s integrated approach—combining polling, custom modeling, and precision digital and offline targeting—enabled campaigns to:
