A Weekly Inventory Intelligence Report

Mail-in ballots are in voters’ hands across key states, and many have yet to be returned. Unlike early in-person voting, where ballots are typically cast at a voting location, EV/AV mail-in voting allows voters to receive a ballot and return it later. This creates an important window for campaigns to identify voters who have received ballots but have not yet voted. This week, we’re looking at Ohio and Nebraska, where 579,739 EV/AV mail-in ballots remain outstanding combined.

With ballots being returned every day, understanding who has already voted and who still has a ballot outstanding is becoming increasingly important. TargetEarly, TargetSmart’s EV/AV tracking platform, provides daily insights into voting activity, helping campaigns understand how turnout is developing and where opportunities remain.

This Week’s Snapshot

Ohio: More than 417,000 EV/AV mail-in ballots are still outstanding

Ohio has mailed more than 452,000 EV/AV mail-in ballots as of October 14, but only 7.8% have been returned, leaving more than 417,000 ballots still outstanding. Ohio’s ballots started going out later than Nebraska’s, so its return rate is naturally lower at this point. Historically, most of these ballots are returned before Election Day. In 2018, 2022, and 2024, approximately 90% of EV/AV mail-in ballots still outstanding at this point were received by Election Day.

Older voters represent the largest share of outstanding ballots, with voters 65 and older accounting for approximately 57%, or nearly 239,000 ballots.

For advertisers, this represents a sizable audience that can still be reached before ballots are returned, making timely targeting and daily voter exclusions increasingly valuable as Election Day approaches.

Nebraska: EV/AV mail-in ballot returns are trailing previous elections

Nebraska has mailed nearly 212,000 EV/AV ballots as of October 14, with approximately 49,700 returned so far. That leaves more than 162,000 ballots outstanding, a total similar to this point in previous elections.

The bigger story is the pace of returns. Just 23.4% of mailed ballots have been returned, compared with 29.8% at the same point in 2022 and 37.9% in 2024. While returns are moving more slowly this year, previous elections show that a substantial share of outstanding ballots can still arrive before Election Day.

Voters 65 and older account for 47% of Nebraska’s outstanding EV/AV mail-in ballots, representing approximately 76,300 ballots.

For advertisers, the slower return rate provides a clear reason to monitor voting activity closely and adjust media targeting as ballots are returned, keeping spending focused on voters who have not yet voted.

What This Means for Premium CTV

With nearly 580,000 EV/AV mail-in ballots still outstanding in Ohio and Nebraska alone, there is a large pool of voters who have yet to cast a ballot, but it’s shrinking every day as returns come in. TargetEarly, TargetSmart’s EV/AV tracking platform, shows EV/AV activity daily, so campaigns can see which ballots have been returned and which are still outstanding.

TargetSmart’s Media Buying Platform puts that intelligence to work. Using EV/AV data and built-in voter exclusions, campaigns can keep CTV, streaming, and display dollars focused on voters who have not yet cast a ballot, while making the most of premium inventory as Election Day approaches.

Planning an October campaign? Talk to TargetSmart about premium inventory available now.

Stay tuned for more.