As the dust continues to settle from the election and the turnout data comes in the door, we’re beginning to see the trends that delivered President-elect Trump a second term. And despite what Republicans might want you to believe, this election was actually what we told you it was going to be: a very close race that was decided by hundreds of thousands of votes in battleground states across the country. Today, we’ll analyze the turnout data from two of those battlegrounds, Arizona and North Carolina. Let’s take a look at what we saw.  

GOP Voter Registration Surge

All cycle long, we heard about the massive gains the GOP was making in voter registrations in key states like Pennsylvania, Arizona, North Carolina, and Nevada. With the data from Arizona and North Carolina in hand, we can confidently say that the GOP’s voter registration in Arizona and North Carolina were an important factor that worked in Trump’s favor.  

• New registrants in Arizona this year were +11 in favor of Republicans, an 8 point gain over that number in 2020. 
• Similarly, in 2020, the Rs had a 2.7 point registration share advantage in Arizona. By 2024, this increased to 5.8 points. 
  • So even if D and R turnout rates had been equal to 2020, Ds would have lost the state due to there simply being more GOPs registered to vote.

• In North Carolina, we saw a similar shift – as Republicans had a 1.57 point registration advantage, a 2.97 point shift over 2020, when Democrats had the slight advantage. In 2020, Democrats had a 1.4 point registration advantage.
• Looking at turnout numbers, you can clearly see the GOP voter registration effort paid off. Nationally, the Democratic share of the final 2024 electorate was 30.7%, compared to 33.8% in 2020. The GOP grew from 38.5% in 2020 to 39.9% in 2024
  • In North Carolina the Democratic share of the electorate fell from 35.6%  to 31.5% while the GOP share basically stayed the same (32.8%-32.9%).

This data makes Democratic wins from Senator-elect Gallego in Arizona and Josh Stein and others in North Carolina that much more impressive. Not only were they facing the political headwinds that the Democratic ticket faced on a national level, but there were major shifts in favor of Republicans in the makeup of the electorate as well. These races should serve as examples for how the party moves forward following such a disappointing defeat. 

The Youth Vote + Gender Gap 

Another critical voting bloc we discussed in the leadup to election day was the youth vote. And early returns show that young voters shifted right similar to how the Country did nationally. In Arizona and North Carolina, we saw shifts in voter registration among people under 30 away from Democrats while their share of the electorate remained about the same. 

• In Arizona, young voters in 2020 were +14D in party registration. This year, that advantage shrunk to +3 in Arizona, an 11 point swing in favor of Republicans

When you take it a step further to look at the youth vote broken down by gender, the data is even more eye-opening. Among voters under the age of 30: 

• In Arizona, women were +16.2D, while men were +11.5R, a near 28 point gender gap. 
• In North Carolina, women were + 10D, while men were +12.4R, a 22 point gender gap. 

Young women were clearly motivated and fired up to vote for Vice President Harris, especially in the battlegrounds. Unfortunately, it was not enough to overcome the men who voted Republican and the massive gains the party made in voter registrations compared to previous cycles. 

Not a Mandate

Over the past couple of months, Republicans have used every opportunity possible to proclaim that the results of the election mean that Donald Trump has a mandate from the American people to pass many of the right-wing policies that are part of his agenda. I’m here to tell you today that this is not true. This election was certainly not a mandate, as Trump didn’t even win 50% of the popular vote. And the data from Arizona and North Carolina further support this claim. 

• In both states, while total turnout increased, turnout as a % of voter registration as well as % of turnout as a percent of the voting eligible population decreased for both Democrats and Republicans. It’s hard to claim a mandate with such a narrow margin and an overall smaller proportion of voters coming out.

In the months ahead, much will be made about where Democrats go from here, and that’s a completely fair question. But oftentimes, it’s the data that gives us those answers. In Arizona and North Carolina, the party clearly needs to ramp up its voter registration efforts to compete with Republicans. In the months ahead, our team at TargetSmart will continue to break the data down for you on a state by state basis. Stay tuned @TBonier and @TargetSmart.