TargetSmart Insights

Thursday, October 22, 2020

By this point, we all know that turnout is huge. At this point more than 40,000,000 Americans have already cast ballots. At TargetSmart, we match each and every one of these voters back to our voter file and are able to do a granular analysis of who exactly has voted, looking at age, race, vote history and much, much more. Here are today’s key takeaways…

Battleground Pennsylvania

It seems like every day, the Trump or Biden campaigns are spending precious time in the Keystone State. So far more than 1,000,000 Pennsylvanians have cast a ballot. Registered Democrats have a commanding 73% – 19% advantage (that’s not a typo).

Of those 744,951 registered Democrats who have already cast votes, a full 178,578 (24.0%) didn’t vote in 2016.

When you dig a little deeper in vote-rich Philadelphia, registered Democrats have an 87% – 5% advantage. While those raw numbers are significant, just as important is WHO is voting. In Philadelphia, 46,551 votes (26.3%) did not vote in 2016.


In 2016, Trump carried Michigan by just 10,000 votes. So far, based on modeled party, Democrats have a 43% to 37% advantage or roughly 100,000 votes. Of those modeled Democratic voters, 26% or 190,000 did not vote in 2016.

National Numbers: New Voters & Voters Who Sat 2016 Out

So far, 24% of this year’s voters didn’t vote in 2016 and 6% have never voted before (not even in this year’s presidential primary). So while both parties are undoubtedly banking votes that are sure to turn out, one of the most important metrics is low-propensity voters who are coming out to make their voices heard in unprecedented numbers in virtually every state.

For more comprehensive data and analysis visit For the latest early vote data, visit