Welcome to Insights – TargetSmart’s tip-sheet to provide regular updates on the latest voter registration, early vote, and voter turnout trends. To date, we have spent a lot of time looking at who was registering to vote. While registration continues to be an important metric, moving forward we will focus on analyzing who has already voted this cycle.

Here are today’s key takeaways:

This year, more Americans are expected to vote early than ever before. As of Monday afternoon, more than 3.6 million votes have already been cast in the 2020 General Election. By comparison, roughly 415,000 people voted by this point in 2016.

Of those who have already voted, 136,000 people have never voted before. Democrats have a 6.1% advantage in modeled party ID among these first time voters.

Of those 3.6 million votes that have already been cast in this election, 586,000 infrequent voters have cast a ballot. Democrats have a 14% modeled partisan ID advantage among these voters.

Democrats continue to outpace Republicans in early and absentee votes cast. So far modeled Democrats have cast more than 1,700,000 early and absentee votes, compared to modeled Republicans, who have cast less than 1,300,000.


For more comprehensive data an analysis visit insights.targetsmart.com.