Vice President Kamala Harris’ ascension to the top of the Democratic ticket on July 21st ignited new feelings of hope among Democrats as they seek to retain control of the White House and stave off a disastrous second Trump term. The energy has been palpable, as evidenced by packed rallies across the country and a tremendously successful convention in Chicago. Poll after poll has reinforced this new energy, and VP Harris has largely erased Trump’s lead in every key battleground. But, the polls can only tell us so much. An important tool that we have at our disposal to understand the impact of the Harris – Walz ticket is voter registration data. While polling can provide valuable insights into public opinion and ongoing trends, voter registration data offers concrete insight into the evolution of the electorate and potential behavior of voters. 

Over the last several weeks, more than 38 states, including the battlegrounds of North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania have updated their voter files since VP Harris became the presumptive nominee. In these states, the energy amongst Democrats and positive polling is backed up by hard data, as incredible surges in voter registration relative to the same time period in 2020 are being observed amongst crucial voting blocs – especially women, voters of color, and young voters. Let’s do a deeper dive on what we’ve seen. 

Voter Registration Surges Across the Country

38 states have updated their voter files since VP Harris became the Democratic nominee, including battlegrounds (MI, NV, WI, PA), blue states (DE, MD, RI), and red states (AK, LA, OK, WY) and the data is incredible. 

• Young Black women are leading the way, with registration nearly tripling relative to the same point in 2020. Overall, Black women have almost doubled their registration numbers from 2020.
• Young Hispanic women aren’t far behind, with a 150% increase in registration. 
• These numbers are extremely positive for Democrats, as Democratic registration has increased by over 50%, compared to only 7% for Republicans. 
  • Additionally, new registrants are modeled as +20 points D, compared to +6 during the same week in 2020.

Battleground Observations

As we all know, the election is going to be decided in a handful of key states. Thankfully for Democrats, the Harris – Walz ticket has energized folks in these states to register to vote. 

• In Pennsylvania, total new registrations increased by 34.3% in the week following  Harris becoming the presumptive nominee compared to the same period in 2020.
  • Among new registrants, D registration increased by 46.6% while GOP registration increased by 21.1%.
  • Demographically, young voters led the way. New registrations among voters under 30 increased by a shocking 59.6%, relative to 2020.
  • New registrations among women increased by 49%. 
  • Among Black voters, there was a 110% increase, and among Black women, a 262% increase compared to 2020.  
• In North Carolina, expected to be one of the most important states this cycle, we have observed similar trends.
  • In the week after Harris became the presumptive nominee, the total number of registrants was almost 50% higher than it was during the same week in 2020 (17,178 to 12,426).
  • During this same period, the gender gap among new registrants was +12 women, compared to +6 four years earlier. Furthermore, 43% of new registrants were younger than 30, as compared to 27% in the same week of 2020. 
  • Unsurprisingly, the new registrants are more D, +6 compared to even with the Rs during that same week in 2020.
• In Wisconsin, women accounted for 60% of new registrations in the week after VP Harris announced her candidacy. During the same week in 2020, women comprised 55% of new registrations. 
  • Furthermore, Latino voters have accounted for 8% of all new registrations, a 4% increase over 2020. 
• In Nevada, post-July 21 voter registration numbers amongst young Hispanic women in particular are astounding – as new registrants among them tripled the number of registrants during the same period in 2020. 
  • Registration among Black women also more than doubled.

Women Are Leading the Charge, Again

In 2022, after reproductive freedoms were stripped away by the conservative Supreme Court’s reversal of Roe v. Wade, we saw women show up and make their voices heard at the ballot box. This, of course, was after our team brought you data point after data point that showed women being more fired up to vote than ever before. We’re seeing the same ring true with VP Harris’ ascension.

• Since VP Harris became the nominee, women are accounting for nearly 55% of all new registrants. The only time we’ve seen anything even remotely similar was post-Dobbs decision in July of 2022. 
• Even more strikingly, as evidenced by the chart above, both the high and low points of voter registration amongst women over the past 2 years plus have come within the past two months. Clearly, Harris has them fired up. 

There’s no two ways about it, this data is great news for Democrats, especially considering where the party found itself just two months ago. But there’s still much work to be done, and all signs continue to point to a closely contested election. In the weeks ahead, Democrats need to continue to show up, do the work, get folks registered to vote, and then get them to vote! Our future – and our democracy – depends on it. 

This data is updated on a rolling basis, and our team at TargetSmart will continue to bring you the latest as we have it, so stay tuned @TBonier and @TargetSmart. In addition, you will now be able to see all of the latest data yourself using our TargetSmart Voter Registration Dashboard which will be rolled out tomorrow – be sure to check it out! 

Download a PDF of The Harris Effect: How a Harris-Walz Ticket has Changed Election Dynamics