Following Donald Trump’s victory a year ago, last Tuesday’s elections in New York City, New Jersey, Virginia and dozens of other states served as the Democrats’ first major chance to make their opposition heard at the polls. It’s been well-reported (and understood) how in New York City, younger voters turned out en masse for Zohran Mamdani. But that’s only part of the story of the 2025 youth vote.
Many pollsters and pundits expected a close race in Virginia, where moderate Democrat Abigail Spanberger and Democrats down the ballot outperformed expectations – in part due to strong support from young voters.
Increase in Youth Turnout
In the weeks leading up to the election, much of the conversation focused on suburban swing voters in Northern Virginia – many of whom have deeply felt the effects of federal jobs cuts and shutdown furloughs. While these groups did contribute to Democrats’ gains statewide, young voters helped swing the race.
While individual voter data won’t be released until next year, using precinct-level data, we’re able to see that areas with high concentrations of younger voters, aged 18 to 29, shifted dramatically toward Democrats. Ultimately, this contributed to an overall Democratic margin of 336,000 votes in precincts with high concentration of young voters. Precincts with large numbers of young voters shifted 4.7 points toward Spanberger compared to 2024—a shift about six times larger than in precincts with fewer young voters.
Even voters at Liberty University in Lynchburg, a traditionally deep-red stronghold that Donald Trump won in 2024, shifted margins +9.1 for Abigail Spanberger.
College Campuses Come Through
Youth voters concentrated on and around college campuses specifically played a major role in delivering Democrats a win in Virginia. George Mason University’s precincts in Fairfax posted the largest Democratic swing statewide at 10.3 points, followed by precincts with Virginia Tech in Blacksburg and James Madison University in Harrisonburg at nearly 7 points each.
Yet the most striking shift came from non-college youth areas. Urban neighborhoods, small college towns, and military communities shifted 5.4 points Democratic, even outperforming precincts in Charlottesville (UVA) and Richmond (VCU).
After major setbacks with young voters in 2024, it’s clear that Democrats have begun to make headway with young voters who will be key to the midterms and in 2028. In the coming weeks we’ll be diving in and sharing additional analysis from last week’s elections.
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