Turnout data from the states that delivered Trump the White House continues to trickle in. Today, we’ll take a look at Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where we continued to see the same trends in GOP registration gains and dips in Democratic turnout compared to 2020 that we discussed in our analysis of North Carolina and Arizona last week. Let’s jump into it. 

GOP Voter Registration & Turnout 

Throughout the 2024 election cycle, the GOP made significant gains in voter registrations across all the battleground states. In Pennsylvania, the electorate shifted from +3.8% Democratic (D) in 2020 to +0.9% Republican (GOP) in 2024, a 4.7% swing. 

• Democratic registration dropped by 138,000 registrants from 2020, while GOP registration increased by 242,000 registrants. 
  • This shift meant that even if turnout rates had remained the same as in 2020, the GOP would have had an advantage due to the higher number of registered Republicans.

In Wisconsin, there was no significant surge in GOP turnout; rather, turnout among key Democratic constituencies fell off more than GOP turnout did. 

• Vice President Harris’ narrowest loss was in WI, with a margin of about 29,000 votes. 
• Compared to 2020, 2024 turnout among AAPI voters fell by 4.7%. Turnout amongst Black voters also fell by 4.7% and 1.7% among Hispanic or Latino voters. 

Young Voters

Age played a major role in the election outcomes in both states. In Pennsylvania, GOP voters under 30 matched their 2020 turnout, while the only GOP age group to exceed their 2020 turnout was those over 75. Young voters were the worst turnout group for Democrats relative to 2020, highlighting a significant age gap in voter engagement.

In Wisconsin, the biggest drops in turnout came among younger voters, with those under age 40 seeing a turnout drop of a little under 11 points. The turnout drop among voters over 65 was just under 5 points. 

The Impact of the Hispanic Vote

Hispanic voters played a crucial role in the Keystone State. In 2020, Biden won 69% of Hispanic voters, while Harris won 59% in 2024 – a 10-point drop. The percentage of Hispanic voters registered as Democrats dropped from 67% in 2020 to 58% in 2024, a 9-point drop. Notably, Democratic Hispanic registration increased by 8,000 over 2020, while GOP Hispanic registration increased by 15,000. Democratic Hispanic turnout dropped by 0.3%, while GOP Hispanic turnout increased by 2.4%. This does not take into account Hispanic voters who may have cast a ballot for Trump, but may have not changed their registration.

Some Context + Work to Do

It’s important to note that the increase in Black voter share and turnout in Wisconsin stands in stark contrast to the significant drop-off in Black voter turnout in Ohio, another Midwestern state with a competitive Senate race. This underscores the impact of well-executed presidential swing-state programs. And while, AAPI and Hispanic voter turnout percentages dropped between 2020 and 2024, both raw vote totals and overall vote share increased, signaling not only a decrease in engagement but also the rapid expansion of these communities in the state.

The results from Pennsylvania and Wisconsin serve as a clear reminder to Democrats of the work still ahead, especially in these communities that have been critical to delivering Democratic victories for so long. While elections aren’t being contested at the moment, it is essential for the Democratic Party and the progressive movement to prioritize a robust, long-term voter registration effort. And when they do, Democratic candidates must deliver a message that effectively addresses the issues most important to these voters.

I’m hopeful, as I know many of you are too, that better days are ahead. Let’s put our heads down and get to work. Stay tuned @TBonier and @TargetSmart for all the latest.