Over the last several weeks, using the TargetSmart Voter Registration Dashboard, we have shown you how Vice President Harris’ ascension to the top of the Democratic ticket has fundamentally changed the dynamics of this year’s election. In honor of Hispanic Heritage Month, we’re going to do a deep dive on voter registration trends among one of the country’s most crucial voting blocs: Hispanic voters.

Both campaigns know full well the importance of reaching these voters (the second largest group of voting-age Americans) as evidenced by the increased spending we’ve seen from both campaigns in the last several weeks among Hispanic communities in states like Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania. While we still have to wait a few weeks to see how they vote, let’s jump into the voter registration trends we have observed.

National Landscape
Both in battleground states like Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, where the outcome of the election is likely to be decided, and in states with the largest populations of Hispanic voters like Florida and Texas, voter registration numbers are up across the board as compared to 2020.

• Even before President Biden dropped out of the race, total voter registrations were up across these states, with 78 million new registrants, compared to only 70 million in 2020.
• New registrations among Hispanic voters were up as well, with 11.5 million new Hispanic registrants prior to July 22, 2024, compared to 9.6 million at that point in 2020.

With that said, the data in the week after Harris ascended to the top of ticket is what’s truly remarkable:

• Across these states, there were 164,152 total new registrants. More than 26,000, or nearly 16%, were Hispanic registrants.
  • This is an 18% increase in total new registrants and a 45% increase in new Hispanic registrants compared to the same week in 2020.
  • To take it a step even further, we saw a 66% increase in voter registration among Hispanic registrants under the age of 30 and an 85% increase among Hispanic women under the age of 30.

Trends in Key States 
Florida

• In the week after VP Harris became the presumptive nominee, we saw a 29% increase in total Hispanic registrants compared to the same week in 2020.
  • Young Hispanics – and young Hispanic women specifically — are leading the way, as there was a 45% increase among Hispanic registrants under the age of 30 and 71% increase among Hispanic women under the age of 30.

Georgia

• In Georgia, in the week after VP Harris became the presumptive nominee, there was a 95% increase in total Hispanic registrants compared to the same week in 2020.
  • Again, young Hispanics, and young Hispanic women, led the way with a 140% increase among Hispanic registrants under the age of 30 and a 180% increase among Hispanic women under the age of 30.

North Carolina

• In North Carolina, a state where the margin is expected to be razor thin, these same trends held true and the data was even more remarkable:
  • In the week after VP Harris became the presumptive nominee, there was a 120% increase in total Hispanic registrants compared to the same week in 2020.
  • This included a 197% increase among Hispanic registrants under the age of 30 and a 210% increase among Hispanic women under the age of 30.

Texas

• Texas, the state with the second largest Hispanic population in the country, has grown increasingly competitive and features a much closer than expected Senate contest where Rep. Colin Alred is running a stellar campaign to unseat Ted “Cancun” Cruz — and Hispanic voters could be the difference.
  • In the week after VP Harris became the presumptive nominee, there was 69% increase in total Hispanic registrants compared to the same week in 2020, including an 80% increase among Hispanic registrants under the age of 30 and a 73% increase among Hispanic women under the age of 30.

At this point, it’s no secret that the Harris-Walz ticket has motivated folks to vote in every corner of the country, and it’s encouraging to see these trends among such a crucial voting bloc like Hispanic voters. But the work is not done. There are still 39 days until the election, and all signs continue to point to one of the closest elections I can remember. So I’ll say it again: we Democrats need to continue to show up, do the work, get folks registered to vote, and then get them to vote! Our future – and our democracy – depends on it. Stay tuned @TBonier and @TargetSmart for all the latest data, and Happy Hispanic Heritage Month!

PS: As you know, votes are already being cast in a handful of states – and with that comes another exciting announcement from the team at TargetSmart. Within the next week or so, our team will be rolling out the 2024 version of TargetEarly, our industry leading tool that allows you to analyze the early vote as data comes in. We can’t wait to bring this to you – stay tuned!