Hi folks, 

We’re still 38 days from Election Day, but ballots are already hitting mailboxes in several states. As those ballots start to be returned over the next few days, we’ll get our first glimpse of what the 2024 electorate looks like. 

Next week, we’ll be rolling out the 2024 version of TargetEarly—our industry-leading tool that helps everyone analyze the early vote in real time. While we can’t see how people vote, we do know who has voted, and that alone can tell us a lot. Of course, there are some limitations, and context is key to interpreting the data. 

Now, we’ve seen incredible advances in campaign data and analytics over the years, but when it comes to understanding the early vote, looking back at past cycles can only take us so far. A lot has changed. In the last few years alone, voting habits, state laws, party messaging, and even public opinion around early voting have shifted drastically. 

Think about it: 2020 was our last comparable presidential election, and it happened in the middle of a global pandemic. Voting laws were adapted across the country, leading to an unprecedented two-thirds of votes being cast early or absentee. That makes 2020—and even 2016—less of a perfect benchmark for 2024 than we might be used to. 

Just consider what’s changed over the last four years: Republicans, who previously denounced early voting, are now urging their base to vote as early as possible. Laws related to early voting are different in 9 battleground states alone. And, of course, we’re no longer in a pandemic where voters are being told to avoid crowds and socially distance. The bottom line? There’s no perfect apples-to-apples comparison for this cycle. 

As we head into the early voting period, we’re expecting to see some notable shifts: more Democratic-leaning voters—especially younger ones—may shift from voting early, like they did in 2020, to voting on Election Day this year. Meanwhile, we might see the opposite trend with some Republican voters (as we did in Virginia’s 2023 elections). 

But that doesn’t mean early vote data—and TargetEarly specifically—won’t be incredibly useful. Quite the opposite. We’re anticipating tens of millions of Americans will still cast their ballots early, and TargetEarly will give us the tools to analyze that data in real time. You’ll be able to break it down by: 

• Geography: state, county, congressional district, state house, or media market. 

• Demographics: age, race, gender, and education. 

• Voting history: first-time voters, infrequent voters, and more. 

Over the next few days, we’ll be sharing ongoing analysis, and you can always follow along at @TBonier and @TargetSmart. I also encourage you to dive into the data yourself—there’s a lot we can learn together. We’ll keep doing our best to add context so we can have a real conversation about what the numbers mean for candidates, campaigns, and the health of our democracy. 

As always, I’d love to hear your thoughts and feedback. 

– Tom