Welcome to Insights – TargetSmart’s tip-sheet to provide regular updates on the latest voter registration, early vote, and voter turnout trends.
Here are today’s key takeaways: As of Tuesday afternoon, TargetSmart has tracked 1,088,897 votes cast already in the 2020 general election. 7% of these voters are participating in their first general election.
Based on modeled partisanship, Democrats have an ID advantage of 8.4% among these first-time voters.
More than 100,000 votes have already been cast in Minnesota. Based on modeled party ID, Democrats account for 46% of all votes cast, 29% GOP, 25% unaffiliated.
In Minnesota, Democrats have a 26% lead among voters who didn’t cast a ballot in 2016. 45% of these Democrats are under the age of 35.
In the week prior to the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg, 2 million voters requested a mail ballot nationally. Democrats had an 11% modeled party ID advantage among these voters. In the week after, 2.4 million voters requested a ballot, and Democrats had a 23% advantage.
The gender gap also increased. Ballot requests in the week prior saw women accounting for a 13-point larger share than men, a margin that expanded to 15 points the following week.
For more comprehensive data an analysis visit insights.targetsmart.com.