DATE: November 3, 2020
TO: Interested parties
FROM: Ben Lazarus, TargetSmart
Drew Linzer and Rachel Sinderbrand, Civiqs
RE: Poll of Early Voters in Pennsylvania Shows Biden Besting Trump 79 to 19 percent
TargetSmart and Civiqs are releasing the topline findings of a poll conducted among early voters in Pennsylvania from Sunday, November 1st through Monday November 2nd. In the survey 79 percent of mail-in voters in Pennsylvania report having voted for Joe Biden, 19 percent report having voted for Donald Trump, 1 percent report having voted for Libertarian Jo Jorgensen and 1 percent report having written in a different candidate.
The survey only sampled individuals who are matched to the TargetSmart voter file AND who the Pennsylvania Secretary of State has reported to have already returned a mail-in ballot in the 2020 general election. The sample’s partisan, demographic, and geographic characteristics are weighted to be representative of the known population of early voters as of the morning of Election Day, November 3rd. The survey reached 1,372 mail-in voters through a blend of live phone calls to landlines and cell phones (n=400), online interviews solicited to mobile devices through SMS invitations (n=134), and voters on the Civiqs online research panel (n=838). The credibility interval associated with this sample size is +/- 2.65%.
Notably, Biden’s 60-point advantage over Trump far outpaces the gap between registered Democrats and Republicans in early voting. As of today, mail-in voters are 66 percent Democratic, 11 percent unaffiliated, and 23 percent Republican. Nearly all registered Democrats who voted by mail (96 percent) report having voted for Biden, and Biden bested Trump by a 76 to 22 percent margin among unaffiliated mail-in voters. Additionally, our poll finds that roughly 3-in-10 registered Republicans who voted by mail supported Joe Biden, while just 66 percent voted for Trump, and another 5 percent voted third party.
Pennsylvania Post-Election Study Early Vote Frequencies (Toplines)