It’s been seven months since the historic 2018 midterm elections, when major Democratic victories in Republican-held districts led to Democrats claiming the House of Representatives and several GOP-held governorships. Since then, some election analyses have pointed to how younger voters, voters of color, and women played a central role in some of these swing districts — but accurate, nuanced, and comprehensive data remain few and far between.
With the launch of TargetSmart’s new Insights website — the first-of-its-kind data analysis tool that gives reporters, political practitioners, and the public unfettered access to topline voter data — we can now begin to fully assess exactly how the 2018 midterm election results came to be. The interactive dashboards include state-by-state and national analyses covering vote share and turnout for wealth of demographic data and can be broken down by multiple sub-groups, including age, race, gender, voter score, party rollup, and urbanicity.
We previously analyzed voter data in key swing states including Georgia, Arizona, and Texas — but for the first time here have analyzed the national electorate, which shows the full impact that both young and senior voters, as well as voters of color, played in the 2018 midterms.
Among the hundreds of potential cross-tab analyses enabled by Insights, we found that younger voters and Hispanic voters substantially increased their vote share relative to 2014, Caucasian voters were the only racial demographic that decreased their vote share relative to 2014, the Republican party continues to rapidly lose its share of younger voters, and those voting for the first time were overwhelmingly young. We encourage you to dive deep into the data and see what other insights our Insights dashboard can shed.
2018 Midterm Voting Trends by Age
One of the major pre-election narratives was how younger voters were registering and turning out in massive numbers during the primaries and had the potential to impact key races. Our national analysis shows that voters under 30 years old increased their vote share by 3.4 percent relative to 2014, while voters aged 40 and above all saw a decrease in vote share relative to 2014. All age groups increased their turnout percentages compared to 2014, but voters 30 and under saw the biggest increase in turnout by doubling their turnout from 18.1 percent to 36.3 percent relative to 2014.