Way to Win & TargetSmart Identify Possible toss-ups in State Legislatures across the country

WASHINGTON, D.C. – Today, Way to Win and TargetSmart released a new political tool, with accompanying analysis, allowing users to examine past election data, with a focus on down-ballot drop-off and roll-off. The tool will provide insights into two distinct phenomena: ticket splitting, also referred to as down ballot ‘drop-off’ and ‘roll-off’ or when voters skip a contest on the ballot altogether.

“Down-ballot races are critical to our democracy. They lay the groundwork for progress, where progressive leaders can grow and enact life changing policy.” said Colleen Loper, Senior Director of Political Strategy at Way to Win. “That is why we developed a tool that helps understand how voters are reacting to these congressional, state legislative, and local races–including if they’re voting in these races or not. Electing President Biden was the start to making change in our country. Now we continue by electing leaders up and down the ballot in these 13 key states.”

“Though Democrats saw victory at the top of the ticket in 2020, they largely lost state houses,” said Tom Bonier, CEO, TargetSmart. “In order to prevent similar circumstances in the upcoming Midterms, every campaign must assess the landscape in their own state or district to determine their optimal path to victory. This new tool from TargetSmart and Way to Win will help candidates in these races do just that.”

The down ballot site is built using data from TargetSmart’s voter file along with ElectionBase: a repository of precinct level data collected since 2012 and disaggregated down to the census block level. This level of granularity allows for re-calculating past election performance, down ballot drop-off and down ballot roll off onto the new 2022 congressional and state legislative districts.

The site, along with the analysis will serve as a resource for progressive organizers and decision makers who are especially interested in bridging the vote gap between high profile, statewide Democratic races, and their down ballot counterparts. Users can toggle through states and elections examining in which districts and geographies down ballot drop-off has historically been the highest, and other information such as voter file and population level counts.

If you’re interested in this tool or would like to learn more about TargetSmart contact Morgan Hopkins,


Way to Win is a progressive strategy hub co-founded by Tory Gavito, Jenifer Fernandez Ancona, Leah Hunt-Hendrix, in 2017, comprised of donors and community organizers partnering with candidates and local grassroots organizations creating a new approach to politics as we know it. Way to Win supports representation reflective of the values and diversity of the United States. They seek to facilitate lasting progressive change that will transform our government for the better, and bring equanimity to all facets of U.S. government. For more information on Way to Win, visit:

TargetSmart’s expert team of data, political, direct marketing, and technical professionals help its clients win with data at both the federal and local level. TargetSmart produces groundbreaking insights, as well as statistical tools for the public to analyze past, current, and future elections.