As nearly two dozen Democratic presidential candidates descend upon Detroit for next week’s debate, the state of Michigan’s electorate -- and what that portends for the 2020 election -- couldn’t be more important. Having voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in six consecutive elections from 1992 through 2012, and thus becoming part of the so-called “Blue Wall” that helped propel [...]

Following an electrifying Senate race where Beto O’Rourke’s campaign nearly claimed Ted Cruz’s Senate seat, an energized youth vote may spell trouble for Donald Trump, John Cornyn, and vulnerable House Republicans in 2020. A new Quinnipiac poll lends credence to this possibility, revealing a virtual polling tie between Trump and leading Democratic contenders including Beto O’Rourke, former Vice President Joe [...]

A new TargetSmart analysis reveals a shift toward a younger and more diverse electorate in Arizona, solidifying its status as an emergent swing state ahead of the 2020 election. The analysis finds that more than a third of voters of color were under 24 years old, suggesting the potential for long-term power at the polls from young voters and people [...]

Commercial voter files hold great promise for studying certain aspects of American politics. These files, compiled by private vendors from administrative data collected by state and local governments, aim to get records for every registered voter in the country and are often supplemented with additional data from other sources. You can read more about them in our February 2018 study. [...]

Young voters are notoriously absent at midterms, but experts say this year could be different, in part because of the political activism surrounding guns. A July analysis from polling firm TargetSmart looked at the change in millennial voter registration before and after the shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida. They found that since then, youth voter registration has [...]