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The following op-ed was published in Campaigns and Elections on November 25, 2019. The 2016 election was a low-point for political advertising. While record amounts of money were spent to reach voters online, the decisions taken by Facebook, Twitter, and Google to put profits ahead of our democracy had far-reaching consequences. Misinformation campaigns abounded, foreign governments interfered with our campaigns, [...]
For campaigns looking to gain an edge with Hispanic voters, a new study links advertising on television in Spanish with a “statistically significant” increase in turnout of Latinx voters. It’s the latest research to show that investing in Spanish-language media is a good bet for campaigns – a perennial debate in political media circles. For the most part, campaigns have [...]
Key Precinct-Level Analysis Takeaways: Precinct-level turnout analysis suggests that increased Spanish language advertising in a media market predicts significantly and substantially increased Latinx turnout. Immigration-related Spanish advertising spending predicts significantly higher Latinx turnout at the precinct level, while English language immigration-related advertising does not. Key Market-Level Analysis Takeaways: Market-level synthetic control analyses show that in nine of the ten [...]
A $1 Million Increase in Spanish TV Advertising Spending Predicts an Average Increase of 0.15% Points in Latinx Turnout at the Precinct Level Increased Spending on Spanish-language Ads Drove Turnout Increases in Key Markets: Los Angeles, Miami, Dallas, Houston, San Francisco, San Diego between 6.2% and 14.0% WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Increased Spanish-language advertising in a media market predicts significantly increased Latinx [...]
About This Data In order to make the 2019 early vote data easier to understand, we've broken down the individual vote history by demographics so it's clear how the electoral demographics have shifted from 2015 and 2017 to 2019. This data comes from TargetSmart analysis of data that has been released by individual state election officials. While it's important [...]
All eyes turn to Virginia ahead of its statewide elections on November 5th, where all 40 seats in the state Senate and 100 seats in state House of Delegates are up for re-election. Despite Virginia’s long history as a battleground state, it has trended blue in recent years, most notably in 2017 when Democrats flipped 15 seats in its [...]
Early Vote Data to be Updated in Live-Time Washington, D.C. – Today, TargetSmart, a Democratic political analytics firm, launched an updated version of TargetEarly, the first-of-its-kind dashboard of state-by-state early vote data that was first launched in the run up to the 2018 midterm election. This new version of TargetEarly will update early vote data in live-time for states holding [...]
As a dozen Democratic presidential candidates descend upon Westerville, Ohio, for this week’s debate, whether Ohio remains a true battleground state or whether its Republican-leaning trend will continue remains to be seen. Having voted for the Democratic nominee in four of the last ten elections, Ohio voters delivered Donald Trump the largest winning margin (eight points) in the state [...]
As nearly two dozen Democratic presidential candidates descend upon Detroit for next week’s debate, the state of Michigan’s electorate -- and what that portends for the 2020 election -- couldn’t be more important. Having voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in six consecutive elections from 1992 through 2012, and thus becoming part of the so-called “Blue Wall” that helped propel [...]
