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Following an electrifying Senate race where Beto O’Rourke’s campaign nearly claimed Ted Cruz’s Senate seat, an energized youth vote may spell trouble for Donald Trump, John Cornyn, and vulnerable House Republicans in 2020. A new Quinnipiac poll lends credence to this possibility, revealing a virtual polling tie between Trump and leading Democratic contenders including Beto O’Rourke, former Vice President [...]
A new TargetSmart analysis reveals a shift toward a younger and more diverse electorate in Arizona, solidifying its status as an emergent swing state ahead of the 2020 election. The analysis finds that more than a third of voters of color were under 24 years old, suggesting the potential for long-term power at the polls from young voters and [...]
About This Data In order to make the 2018 election results easier to understand, we've broken down the individual vote history by demographics so it's clear how the electoral demographics have shifted from 2014 and 2016 to 2018. This data comes from TargetSmart analysis of data that has been released by individual state election officials. While it's important to [...]
It’s been nearly a month since a historic blue wave swept across the country, a midterm election that saw Democrats pick up at least 40 seats in the House plus 7 governor’s seats, in addition to hundreds of state legislative seats nationwide. Stacey Abrams, the Democratic candidate for governor in Georgia, fell just short, but a new analysis of [...]
With just over 24 hours until the first polls close, more than 35 million Americans have already voted in the 2018 midterm elections — a 176 percent increase over the 20 million people who voted at this point in 2014. While early vote data cannot predict election day turnout, there are key insights that we can draw from the electorate that [...]
Last week TargetSmart launched TargetEarly, a one-stop interactive dashboard of early vote data for 42 states. So far in 2018, over 22 million people have already voted with 6 days until election day. By comparison in the 2014 midterms, just over 83 million people voted in total. While early vote has consistently increased over the last decade, early indications are [...]
Commercial voter files hold great promise for studying certain aspects of American politics. These files, compiled by private vendors from administrative data collected by state and local governments, aim to get records for every registered voter in the country and are often supplemented with additional data from other sources. You can read more about them in our February 2018 study. [...]
Young voters are notoriously absent at midterms, but experts say this year could be different, in part because of the political activism surrounding guns. A July analysis from polling firm TargetSmart looked at the change in millennial voter registration before and after the shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida. They found that since then, youth voter registration has [...]
In an effort to provide Democratic candidates and progressive organizations with effective, affordable communication tools, TargetSmart, the leading data provider to Democratic campaigns and causes, has partnered with SpeakEasy Political – a self-serve political ad platform for Democrats – to bring top of the ticket digital tools to down-ballot races. The collaboration gives campaigns interested in running multi-platform digital programs [...]
