About This Data In order to make the 2019 early vote data easier to understand, we've broken down the individual vote history by demographics so it's clear how the electoral demographics have shifted from 2015 and 2017 to 2019. This data comes from TargetSmart analysis of data that has been released by individual state election officials. While it's important [...]

All eyes turn to Virginia ahead of its statewide elections on November 5th, where all 40 seats in the state Senate and 100 seats in state House of Delegates are up for re-election. Despite Virginia’s long history as a battleground state, it has trended blue in recent years, most notably in 2017 when Democrats flipped 15 seats in its [...]

As a dozen Democratic presidential candidates descend upon Westerville, Ohio, for this week’s debate, whether Ohio remains a true battleground state or whether its Republican-leaning trend will continue remains to be seen. Having voted for the Democratic nominee in four of the last ten elections, Ohio voters delivered Donald Trump the largest winning margin (eight points) in the state [...]

As nearly two dozen Democratic presidential candidates descend upon Detroit for next week’s debate, the state of Michigan’s electorate -- and what that portends for the 2020 election -- couldn’t be more important. Having voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in six consecutive elections from 1992 through 2012, and thus becoming part of the so-called “Blue Wall” that helped [...]

Executive Summary In recognition of the key role young voters played in the 2018 midterm elections, and will play in the 2020 presidential election, TargetSmart’s Research and Analytics team commissioned a TargetSmart/Civiqs poll of 1,912 Democratic primary voters aged 18-34 in all fifty states and the District of Columbia in partnership with The Alliance for Youth Action. The survey, [...]

It’s been seven months since the historic 2018 midterm elections, when major Democratic victories in Republican-held districts led to Democrats claiming the House of Representatives and several GOP-held governorships. Since then, some election analyses have pointed to how younger voters, voters of color, and women played a central role in some of these swing districts -- but accurate, nuanced, [...]

Victory in Iowa Democrats have been fretting in recent years about how once-purple Iowa was ostensibly slipping into red territory. After President Barack Obama won the state twice, the 2014 and 2016 election cycles saw Republicans expand and maintain their grip on state and federal seats. November 2018’s midterm elections show, however, that despite older and whiter voters continuing [...]

In an historic midterm election defined by Congressional and gubernatorial seats flipping from Republicans to Democrats, Ohio was an outlier. Going into the 2018 election, Ohio Republicans held 12 House seats and the Governor’s mansion; Ohio Democrats held four House seats and a Senate seat -- exactly the same as today. While other traditional and emerging battleground states saw [...]

The blue wave that defined the 2018 midterm elections was especially evident in California, where Democrats flipped seven key House seats, including long-time Republican-held seats in bastions of conservatism like Orange County. According to a new TargetSmart analysis, a significant surge in the vote share of young and Hispanic voters compared to previous elections reflects how a diversifying electorate [...]