As we all continue to adjust to a new normal, we’re seeing changes in nearly every aspect of our day-to-day lives - how we work, how our kids experience school, and more. We've been focused on gaining a better understanding of how the coronavirus outbreak will impact this year's elections. In this edition of our newsletter we are focused on [...]

The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted every facet of American life. As we’ve all seen in recent weeks, the crisis is also having a profound effect on how elections are administered, and campaigns are run. While it will be some time until we have a full picture of how the crisis has shaped the electorate, an initial picture is emerging. [...]

Most American voters are concerned that the ongoing coronavirus outbreak will prevent U.S. citizens from participating in the 2020 elections. As a result, huge majorities are supportive of a broad array of reforms to ensure it is safe to vote come November. These findings are drawn from a nationwide study of registered voters in the United States to see [...]

As we make the quick pivot from this past weekend’s South Carolina primary to the first (and biggest) multi-state contest in the Democratic nominating process, there are already tea leaves to be read regarding Democratic intensity and enthusiasm. 14 states hold primaries tomorrow, along with caucuses in American Samoa. But in reality, most of these elections started days, if not [...]

FEBRUARY 25, 2020 Thanks for taking the time to check out our first TargetSmart Insights election data newsletter. As the election year unfolds, the punditry is only going to increase – and TargetSmart’s goal is to guide the noise with interesting data and nuanced analysis. My hope is to share, about once a week, some stats from the voter file [...]

Key Precinct-Level Analysis Takeaways: Precinct-level turnout analysis suggests that increased Spanish language advertising in a media market predicts significantly and substantially increased Latinx turnout. Immigration-related Spanish advertising spending predicts significantly higher Latinx turnout at the precinct level, while English language immigration-related advertising does not. Key Market-Level Analysis Takeaways: Market-level synthetic control analyses show that in nine of the ten [...]

About This Data In order to make the 2019 early vote data easier to understand, we've broken down the individual vote history by demographics so it's clear how the electoral demographics have shifted from 2015 and 2017 to 2019. This data comes from TargetSmart analysis of data that has been released by individual state election officials. While it's important [...]

All eyes turn to Virginia ahead of its statewide elections on November 5th, where all 40 seats in the state Senate and 100 seats in state House of Delegates are up for re-election. Despite Virginia’s long history as a battleground state, it has trended blue in recent years, most notably in 2017 when Democrats flipped 15 seats in its [...]

As a dozen Democratic presidential candidates descend upon Westerville, Ohio, for this week’s debate, whether Ohio remains a true battleground state or whether its Republican-leaning trend will continue remains to be seen. Having voted for the Democratic nominee in four of the last ten elections, Ohio voters delivered Donald Trump the largest winning margin (eight points) in the state [...]