As nearly two dozen Democratic presidential candidates descend upon Detroit for next week’s debate, the state of Michigan’s electorate -- and what that portends for the 2020 election -- couldn’t be more important. Having voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in six consecutive elections from 1992 through 2012, and thus becoming part of the so-called “Blue Wall” that helped [...]

Executive Summary In recognition of the key role young voters played in the 2018 midterm elections, and will play in the 2020 presidential election, TargetSmart’s Research and Analytics team commissioned a TargetSmart/Civiqs poll of 1,912 Democratic primary voters aged 18-34 in all fifty states and the District of Columbia in partnership with The Alliance for Youth Action. The survey, [...]

It’s been seven months since the historic 2018 midterm elections, when major Democratic victories in Republican-held districts led to Democrats claiming the House of Representatives and several GOP-held governorships. Since then, some election analyses have pointed to how younger voters, voters of color, and women played a central role in some of these swing districts -- but accurate, nuanced, [...]

Victory in Iowa Democrats have been fretting in recent years about how once-purple Iowa was ostensibly slipping into red territory. After President Barack Obama won the state twice, the 2014 and 2016 election cycles saw Republicans expand and maintain their grip on state and federal seats. November 2018’s midterm elections show, however, that despite older and whiter voters continuing [...]

In an historic midterm election defined by Congressional and gubernatorial seats flipping from Republicans to Democrats, Ohio was an outlier. Going into the 2018 election, Ohio Republicans held 12 House seats and the Governor’s mansion; Ohio Democrats held four House seats and a Senate seat -- exactly the same as today. While other traditional and emerging battleground states saw [...]

The blue wave that defined the 2018 midterm elections was especially evident in California, where Democrats flipped seven key House seats, including long-time Republican-held seats in bastions of conservatism like Orange County. According to a new TargetSmart analysis, a significant surge in the vote share of young and Hispanic voters compared to previous elections reflects how a diversifying electorate [...]

Following an electrifying Senate race where Beto O’Rourke’s campaign nearly claimed Ted Cruz’s Senate seat, an energized youth vote may spell trouble for Donald Trump, John Cornyn, and vulnerable House Republicans in 2020. A new Quinnipiac poll lends credence to this possibility, revealing a virtual polling tie between Trump and leading Democratic contenders including Beto O’Rourke, former Vice President [...]

A new TargetSmart analysis reveals a shift toward a younger and more diverse electorate in Arizona, solidifying its status as an emergent swing state ahead of the 2020 election. The analysis finds that more than a third of voters of color were under 24 years old, suggesting the potential for long-term power at the polls from young voters and [...]

About This Data In order to make the 2018 election results easier to understand, we've broken down the individual vote history by demographics so it's clear how the electoral demographics have shifted from 2014 and 2016 to 2018. This data comes from TargetSmart analysis of data that has been released by individual state election officials. While it's important to [...]